Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Sunday's Washington Post carried an article decrying the irregularities in Nicaragua's municipal elections last week and recommending that the United States government withhold aid funds to put pressure on President Daniel Ortega. The opposition candidate for mayor of Managua, Eduardo Montealegre, lost by a small margin and his supporters have demanded a recount and investigations into alleged ballot box stuffing by Ortega's FSLN party. National prominence as mayor would make the popular Montealegre a likely challenger to Ortega in the next presidential race. A major demonstration threatens to bring the capital to a standstill today in an effort to force the government to allow the potentially embarrassing examination of possible fraud. At the moment, it appears that any irregularities were scattered, ad hoc and insufficient to have altered the result.

The Post article gives an account of recent Nicaraguan history that is a mockery of responsible journalism, referring to the Sandinista government that won a fair election in 1984 as a dictatorship, among other disinformation. Ortega lost the 1990 vote as stated, but there is no mention that he would have won had it not been for US interference and that the supposed dictator submitted to the decision and peacefully ceded power. Likewise, the political alliance Ortega formed with corrupt former president Arnaldo Aleman is described while ommitting that Aleman originally won power only with generous campaign financing from the White House. Recounting Ortega's attempts to circumvent the constitution to stay in power, the Post is not satisfied with reporting the deplorable facts, but feels the need to embellish. One can imagine how Americans would react to another nation loudly proclaiming its presumed right to interfere with the internal affairs of the United States in response to a stolen election and a president's blatant contempt for the law and democratic process.

The people of Nicaragua have suffered enough at the hands of the United States; invasion, occupation, repressive dictatorship, revolution, terrorist war, ongoing economic warfare and persistent political meddling. The US government long ago forfeited even the pretense of morality in its dealings with this impoverished nation struggling to build its own democracy. It should address its own problems and leave them be.

Washington Post
Nicaragua's Spoiled Ballot
President Daniel Ortega moves to construct another dictatorship.
Sunday, November 16, 2008; Page B06

THROUGH MUCH of the 1980s, the United States waged a proxy war to prevent Daniel Ortega and his Sandinista party from consolidating a dictatorship in Nicaragua. In 1990, Mr. Ortega finally agreed to hold a presidential election, which he lost; since then Central America's poorest country has struggled to build a functioning democracy. Now Mr. Ortega is back and once again is seeking autocratic power. This time, however, neither the United States nor other outside powers are doing much to stop him.

Mr. Ortega regained the president's office in 2006, thanks to a corrupt alliance with a right-wing leader and a constitutional amendment that allowed him to claim power with 38 percent of the vote. Since then eight of 10 Nicaraguans have turned against the president, according to independent polls -- yet Mr. Ortega's campaign to dismantle the political system has accelerated. He has banned two opposition parties, brought criminal charges against independent journalists and nongovernmental organizations, and built bullying "citizens power councils" with funding from Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chávez.

The opposition hoped to block what several former Sandinista leaders have called an emerging dictatorship by winning local elections last Sunday. Mr. Ortega responded by barring international election observers for the first time since 1990 and organizing what the opposition and Nicaraguan election observers say was a massive fraud. Opposition leader Eduardo Montealegre, who was favored to win the race for mayor of Managua, was declared the loser by a government-controlled electoral council. Mr. Montealegre's own count, compiled by collecting results from individual polling stations, showed him winning decisively. In the country's second-largest city, León, thousands of ballots were found in the municipal dump, most of them marked with votes for Mr. Montealegre's Liberal party. Now violence is mounting in Managua's streets between opposition supporters and groups of Sandinista thugs, who wield machetes and guns.

Outraged by Mr. Ortega's behavior, European governments are moving to cut off funding equal to a third of the government's budget. But the Bush administration's reaction has been laconic. The State Department issued a statement last week deploring the "irregularities"; on Thursday the U.S. ambassador said he was concerned. The United States has considerable economic leverage it can employ -- there is no need for another contra army. Among other things, Nicaragua is currently the beneficiary of a $175 million aid program from the Millennium Challenge Corp., which is supposed to condition grants on the government's respect for political rights and the rule of law. It seems pretty obvious that Mr. Ortega has flunked those tests.

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