Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Sunday's Washington Post carried an article decrying the irregularities in Nicaragua's municipal elections last week and recommending that the United States government withhold aid funds to put pressure on President Daniel Ortega. The opposition candidate for mayor of Managua, Eduardo Montealegre, lost by a small margin and his supporters have demanded a recount and investigations into alleged ballot box stuffing by Ortega's FSLN party. National prominence as mayor would make the popular Montealegre a likely challenger to Ortega in the next presidential race. A major demonstration threatens to bring the capital to a standstill today in an effort to force the government to allow the potentially embarrassing examination of possible fraud. At the moment, it appears that any irregularities were scattered, ad hoc and insufficient to have altered the result.

The Post article gives an account of recent Nicaraguan history that is a mockery of responsible journalism, referring to the Sandinista government that won a fair election in 1984 as a dictatorship, among other disinformation. Ortega lost the 1990 vote as stated, but there is no mention that he would have won had it not been for US interference and that the supposed dictator submitted to the decision and peacefully ceded power. Likewise, the political alliance Ortega formed with corrupt former president Arnaldo Aleman is described while ommitting that Aleman originally won power only with generous campaign financing from the White House. Recounting Ortega's attempts to circumvent the constitution to stay in power, the Post is not satisfied with reporting the deplorable facts, but feels the need to embellish. One can imagine how Americans would react to another nation loudly proclaiming its presumed right to interfere with the internal affairs of the United States in response to a stolen election and a president's blatant contempt for the law and democratic process.

The people of Nicaragua have suffered enough at the hands of the United States; invasion, occupation, repressive dictatorship, revolution, terrorist war, ongoing economic warfare and persistent political meddling. The US government long ago forfeited even the pretense of morality in its dealings with this impoverished nation struggling to build its own democracy. It should address its own problems and leave them be.

Washington Post
Nicaragua's Spoiled Ballot
President Daniel Ortega moves to construct another dictatorship.
Sunday, November 16, 2008; Page B06
THROUGH MUCH of the 1980s, the United States waged a proxy war to prevent Daniel Ortega and his Sandinista party from consolidating a dictatorship in Nicaragua. In 1990, Mr. Ortega finally agreed to hold a presidential election, which he lost; since then Central America's poorest country has struggled to build a functioning democracy. Now Mr. Ortega is back and once again is seeking autocratic power. This time, however, neither the United States nor other outside powers are doing much to stop him.

Mr. Ortega regained the president's office in 2006, thanks to a corrupt alliance with a right-wing leader and a constitutional amendment that allowed him to claim power with 38 percent of the vote. Since then eight of 10 Nicaraguans have turned against the president, according to independent polls -- yet Mr. Ortega's campaign to dismantle the political system has accelerated. He has banned two opposition parties, brought criminal charges against independent journalists and nongovernmental organizations, and built bullying "citizens power councils" with funding from Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chávez.

The opposition hoped to block what several former Sandinista leaders have called an emerging dictatorship by winning local elections last Sunday. Mr. Ortega responded by barring international election observers for the first time since 1990 and organizing what the opposition and Nicaraguan election observers say was a massive fraud. Opposition leader Eduardo Montealegre, who was favored to win the race for mayor of Managua, was declared the loser by a government-controlled electoral council. Mr. Montealegre's own count, compiled by collecting results from individual polling stations, showed him winning decisively. In the country's second-largest city, León, thousands of ballots were found in the municipal dump, most of them marked with votes for Mr. Montealegre's Liberal party. Now violence is mounting in Managua's streets between opposition supporters and groups of Sandinista thugs, who wield machetes and guns.

Outraged by Mr. Ortega's behavior, European governments are moving to cut off funding equal to a third of the government's budget. But the Bush administration's reaction has been laconic. The State Department issued a statement last week deploring the "irregularities"; on Thursday the U.S. ambassador said he was concerned. The United States has considerable economic leverage it can employ -- there is no need for another contra army. Among other things, Nicaragua is currently the beneficiary of a $175 million aid program from the Millennium Challenge Corp., which is supposed to condition grants on the government's respect for political rights and the rule of law. It seems pretty obvious that Mr. Ortega has flunked those tests.

Technorati Tags: Nicaragua,politics,American,United States,Washington Post,elections

Insecurity Conscious

Security is a constant concern in Nicaragua, even though this country is reported to have the lowest crime rate in Latin America. The huge disparity between rich and poor makes petty crime a chronic problem, and as a result houses are typically constructed with iron bars on windows and doors. Those who can afford to do so surround their homes with high walls topped by jagged glass shards or razor ribbon. Anything of value has an armed guard watching it twenty-four hours a day, making private security companies a huge industry. Property owners have no choice. Policemen are poorly paid, barely trained and ill-equipped, so their response to incidents of crime is half-hearted at best. A local resident recently had his home robbed and when he called the police they demanded gas money to drive out to his house. Walking past the local police station, I noticed that the on-duty officers park their motorcycles inside the building to prevent theft, a practice that hardly instills confidence.

Lack of security has a more subtle effect on a society than simple street crime. As one example, some tourists note the low standard of local building construction. Those who have visited Greece, for instance, recall the solidly built stone houses that have been there for centuries and make the towns so picturesque. The typical Nicaraguan house is a rather ugly rectangle of stuccoed cinder block, topped with a corrugated tin roof. The wars, revolutions, repressive dictatorships and natural disasters that Nicaraguans have suffered through have created a mentality of low expectation. Why build, work or invest for the long term when it can all be taken away from you tomorrow?

In places like Iraq, Afghanistan and the Congo, security is obviously a far more critical issue than it is in Nicaragua. Whereas it is an impediment to development here, in those countries no significant improvement of any kind will be seen until security problems have been addressed and people are no longer living in fear. Canadians, western Europeans and other citizens of the first world can take security largely for granted, but for the rest of humanity it is a factor that to some degree circumscribes their lives. Even in the United States, violent crime is so common that a large part of every major city is a 'no go' zone, particularly after dark.

Honest, effective police, a court system that works and transparent government would make an enormous difference to the quality of life for Nicaraguans. These things are a fundamental requirement for economic and social development, but few nations outside the rich countries enjoy their benefits. Training programmes for police and judiciary personnel are part of the foreign aid package for Afghanistan and Iraq, but are missing from assistance to the rest of the developing world. More attention to such basic foundations of civil society would pay disproportionately large dividends.

Lateral Thinking

Here are a few ideas for President Elect Obama to consider that he may not hear from his advisors.

1. The United States defense establishment is arguably twice, and more likely three or four times the size that any rational assessment of national security needs can justify. Even the US Navy brass said that they had no real use for their newest aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, built at a cost of some five billion dollars. It was a white elephant pushed on them by greedy Congressmen. Having sufficient firepower to annihilate all life on Earth several times over may help Dick Cheney sleep better, but it has not made America more secure. Get out of Iraq, promote collective security, close some of those seven hundred foreign bases, practice a less belligerent foreign policy and it would be possible to issue a peace dividend that would pay to renew the country's deplorably neglected school system or provide health care to those fifty million people currently without access. A major reassessment of priorities is in order.

1b. It is not possible to have a War on Terror. Terrorism is a tactic. Protecting the country from terrorist acts is the job of intelligence and police services. Ending terrorism is the work of politicians and diplomats who must address the injustices and frustration that drive people to use terrorist tactics. Historically, military responses to terrorism have proven ineffective and ultimately futile; ie. Northern Ireland. Terrorism against the United States is a reaction to predatory foreign policies. Treat the disease, not the symptom.

2. During the election campaign, I heard both sides claim that the United States is the last great hope of the world. This is a pathetically common delusion among Americans, but worrying to hear from national leaders who should know better. In truth, the vast majority of the world's people perceive the US as a rapacious, malevolent force and in the Third World it is widely considered the primary cause of violence, oppression and poverty. This is why the World Trade Center fell, it is why Hugo Chavez is pissed and why every US Embassy must be an armed fortress. The president needs to acknowledge this reality and make the public realize it if there is to be any change.

3. Free trade in the conception of the United States government is the equivalent of removing the weight classes from boxing so the super heavyweight wins every bout and no one else has a chance. Globalization has bought an extra percentage point of GDP growth at harrowing human cost and the belief that everyone will eventually benefit from a trickle down economic effect has proven just as erroneous as it was in the US. The rest of the world wants fair trade. Adding labour and environmental standards to the World Trade Organization agreements might reduce the mark up on a pair of Nike running shoes from 2000% to a mere 1900%, but it would dramatically advance human development and be a major step forward in addressing points 1and 2. One plan proposes that each nation open their economy up unequivocally to free trade with nations poorer than themselves, allowing the less developed nations to protect their fragile economies from unrestricted competition with richer nations while accessing markets in wealthier countries. The ensuing economic boom in the Third World could drive world growth for the next half century.

4. Green is good. President Obama has an ambitious environmental agenda based primarily on pursuing new technology. Actually, changes in building construction and urban planning would make a far greater difference. Better city design and public transit would allow people to live near their work and not have to rely on their cars for every journey. That would do more for energy consumption and reducing pollution than a nationwide switch to hybrids. Houses and buildings are responsible for seventy percent of greenhouse gas emissions and a gradual shift to green design through new and renovated construction would produce more green for the greenback. The bonus here would be that better designed cities would be more livable and more environmentally friendly homes and buildings are healthier for their occupants.

5. Perhaps this one is too obvious. In its current economic situation, the United States can no longer afford to pay premium price for a malfunctioning health care system that produces poor results. Whatever its efficiencies in other sectors of the economy, the free market is incapable of compassion, an essential component for a system whose fundamental purpose is caring for people. A Canadian-style single payer system, as example, would cover everyone in the country, improve the overall quality of care and save the economy approximately $500 billion a year, as well as creating a variety of other economic and social benefits.

6. Even the DEA admits that the War on Drugs has been a dismal failure. Narcotics use is a social problem that cannot be addressed through police and military action. The $50 billion a year currently wasted on this programme would be more productively spent addressing the inequalities in American society that drive people to use drugs. The US government spends more billions of dollars each year fighting the foreign drug cartels that supply the narcotics and, ironically, also funded by the American public. The resulting carnage achieves little and adds enormously to the suffering of the people in Columbia, Afghanistan, Lebanon and elsewhere.

7. The United Nations could do a great deal more than it does for human development and the promotion of peaceful and productive coexistence among nations, if only the United States would let it. The US is the organization's most powerful member and largest single financial contributor. Its influence at the UN is enormous and has been persistently abused. Check the voting records of the Security Council. Peacekeeping has been kept ineffective so that it does not challenge the United States' self-appointed position as the world's policeman. Human development programmes are hampered by US farm subsidy and trade promotion policies. Some conflicts have been incited by the United States (Angola) and others exacerbated and prolonged (Iran-Iraq War) to serve misguided US priorities. Democracies have been overthrown (Chile, Guatemala, Iran, etc, etc) and autocrats preserved in power (Saudi Arabia, Zaire, Nicaragua, etc, etc, etc). International law is regularly flaunted by US actions (Iraq) and the sovereign rights of other nations dismissed (Grenada, Venezuela, Panama, etc, etc). American unilateralism implicitly declares the United Nations irrelevant. The entire world will benefit and become a more secure place for Americans when the United States finally decides to became a team player.

8. In the early 1980's the US automakers were reeling from the onslaught of cheap, well-designed and well-made Japanese imports. They could have rallied and made a big investment in improved technology, but chose instead to collectively spend $5 billion on a public relations campaign to convince the American public that four-wheel drive trucks are cool. At the same time, the Big Three twisted the arms of a good many Congressmen to get SUV's and pickup trucks exempted from the calculation of Corporate Average Fuel Economy by designating them as farm equipment. The SUV was an unsophisticated machine that the US car companies could build competitively because the Japanese simply didn't make them. It is dying out now, done in by high fuel prices, and will go to its grave unlamented. For a quarter of a century Detroit has profited mightily, sniggering at having smoked the yokels yet again, while the environment suffered and America's dependence on Middle-East oil grew. Unfortunately for the car makers, they have no second act. At least one and possibly all will likely disappear, abiding only as a classic case study in poor strategic management. It is time to close that embarrassing loophole in the CAFE regulations and force the US automobile industry, or whatever remains of it, to get serious about building better cars.

Technorati Tags: American,politics,Obama,policy

Only in America

A note from election night in the USA:

Watching the returns on television with some Americans and a mix of other nationalities, the CNN analyst came on screen with a breakdown of the popular vote, showing us brightly coloured pie charts labeled 'WHITE', 'BLACK' and 'HISPANIC'. None of the Americans present thought this in any way remarkable, of course, but a Canadian leaned towards me and cogently observed, "Only in America would voters be categorized by race."

Rain, Rain, Go Away

The rains are over. Yesterday, for the first time in several months, dawn broke upon a clear blue sky that remained unsullied by clouds throughout the day. Today saw a repeat performance. The rainy season is over and we can expect to see no precipitation whatsoever for six months.

There were those who warned about the depressive effect of constant rain lasting for weeks, but that all turned out to be morbid exaggeration. Perhaps three days out of the last half year did we have all day showers and my raincoat got, at most, six or seven uses in all.

Now we have six to eight weeks to enjoy the verdant green countryside under sunny skies before drought returns it to its leafless winter shades of brown. Throughout the year, temperatures have hardly varied at all. During the rains, daily highs were consistently about 30 degrees Centigrade. The coming dry season will send the mercury to 32 degrees virtually every day. I'm not complaining.

Obamanation

Election Day in the United States and pollsters give John McCain a less than two percent chance of winning the US presidency,  as it should be. The man has run an incompetent campaign, chosen a detestable running mate, shown a very ugly side of himself in his constant use of negative advertising based in falsehoods and offered very little to commend himself to the public, other than persistently referring to himself as a 'maverick' and assuring everyone that he intuitively knows how to run the country.

Originally, I felt pity for McCain, convinced that anyone foolish enough to accept the Republican nomination following Bush Jr's performance was a sacrificial lamb. Perhaps that was the reason he got it. His resume isn't that impressive. Fifth from the bottom of his class at Annapolis, he was a lousy pilot, an unexceptional military officer and a mediocre legislator. Even in his much referenced imprisonment in Viet Nam, he sang like a canary to get privileged treatment from his captures as the son of an admiral, rather than offer them only name, rank and serial number. Bad as his experience was, his conduct falls somewhat short of heroic. When his wife was disfigured in an accident, McCain dumped her to marry the heiress with whom he had been having an adulterous affair. Hardly the actions of a man of integrity.

I feel quite hopeful about Obama. Unlike his opponent, he rose from modest circumstances to become the editor of the Harvard Law Review and a professor of constitutional law. A large part of his adult life has been devoted to public service and  the people who surround him constitute an impressive brain trust. Like any president, he will be hemmed in by vested interests and the daunting task of cleaning up the mess Bush leaves behind will limit time and resources for constructive action. On the positive side, Obama can expect to have Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress and a massive public mandate. As of tomorrow, the Republicans will likely be in full retreat. Having seen how much damage a truly bad president can do, is it too much to hope that an honorable leader with an exceptional intellect can do as much for the good?