Friday, November 07, 2008

Lateral Thinking

Here are a few ideas for President Elect Obama to consider that he may not hear from his advisors.

1. The United States defense establishment is arguably twice, and more likely three or four times the size that any rational assessment of national security needs can justify. Even the US Navy brass said that they had no real use for their newest aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, built at a cost of some five billion dollars. It was a white elephant pushed on them by greedy Congressmen. Having sufficient firepower to annihilate all life on Earth several times over may help Dick Cheney sleep better, but it has not made America more secure. Get out of Iraq, promote collective security, close some of those seven hundred foreign bases, practice a less belligerent foreign policy and it would be possible to issue a peace dividend that would pay to renew the country's deplorably neglected school system or provide health care to those fifty million people currently without access. A major reassessment of priorities is in order.

1b. It is not possible to have a War on Terror. Terrorism is a tactic. Protecting the country from terrorist acts is the job of intelligence and police services. Ending terrorism is the work of politicians and diplomats who must address the injustices and frustration that drive people to use terrorist tactics. Historically, military responses to terrorism have proven ineffective and ultimately futile; ie. Northern Ireland. Terrorism against the United States is a reaction to predatory foreign policies. Treat the disease, not the symptom.

2. During the election campaign, I heard both sides claim that the United States is the last great hope of the world. This is a pathetically common delusion among Americans, but worrying to hear from national leaders who should know better. In truth, the vast majority of the world's people perceive the US as a rapacious, malevolent force and in the Third World it is widely considered the primary cause of violence, oppression and poverty. This is why the World Trade Center fell, it is why Hugo Chavez is pissed and why every US Embassy must be an armed fortress. The president needs to acknowledge this reality and make the public realize it if there is to be any change.

3. Free trade in the conception of the United States government is the equivalent of removing the weight classes from boxing so the super heavyweight wins every bout and no one else has a chance. Globalization has bought an extra percentage point of GDP growth at harrowing human cost and the belief that everyone will eventually benefit from a trickle down economic effect has proven just as erroneous as it was in the US. The rest of the world wants fair trade. Adding labour and environmental standards to the World Trade Organization agreements might reduce the mark up on a pair of Nike running shoes from 2000% to a mere 1900%, but it would dramatically advance human development and be a major step forward in addressing points 1and 2. One plan proposes that each nation open their economy up unequivocally to free trade with nations poorer than themselves, allowing the less developed nations to protect their fragile economies from unrestricted competition with richer nations while accessing markets in wealthier countries. The ensuing economic boom in the Third World could drive world growth for the next half century.

4. Green is good. President Obama has an ambitious environmental agenda based primarily on pursuing new technology. Actually, changes in building construction and urban planning would make a far greater difference. Better city design and public transit would allow people to live near their work and not have to rely on their cars for every journey. That would do more for energy consumption and reducing pollution than a nationwide switch to hybrids. Houses and buildings are responsible for seventy percent of greenhouse gas emissions and a gradual shift to green design through new and renovated construction would produce more green for the greenback. The bonus here would be that better designed cities would be more livable and more environmentally friendly homes and buildings are healthier for their occupants.

5. Perhaps this one is too obvious. In its current economic situation, the United States can no longer afford to pay premium price for a malfunctioning health care system that produces poor results. Whatever its efficiencies in other sectors of the economy, the free market is incapable of compassion, an essential component for a system whose fundamental purpose is caring for people. A Canadian-style single payer system, as example, would cover everyone in the country, improve the overall quality of care and save the economy approximately $500 billion a year, as well as creating a variety of other economic and social benefits.

6. Even the DEA admits that the War on Drugs has been a dismal failure. Narcotics use is a social problem that cannot be addressed through police and military action. The $50 billion a year currently wasted on this programme would be more productively spent addressing the inequalities in American society that drive people to use drugs. The US government spends more billions of dollars each year fighting the foreign drug cartels that supply the narcotics and, ironically, also funded by the American public. The resulting carnage achieves little and adds enormously to the suffering of the people in Columbia, Afghanistan, Lebanon and elsewhere.

7. The United Nations could do a great deal more than it does for human development and the promotion of peaceful and productive coexistence among nations, if only the United States would let it. The US is the organization's most powerful member and largest single financial contributor. Its influence at the UN is enormous and has been persistently abused. Check the voting records of the Security Council. Peacekeeping has been kept ineffective so that it does not challenge the United States' self-appointed position as the world's policeman. Human development programmes are hampered by US farm subsidy and trade promotion policies. Some conflicts have been incited by the United States (Angola) and others exacerbated and prolonged (Iran-Iraq War) to serve misguided US priorities. Democracies have been overthrown (Chile, Guatemala, Iran, etc, etc) and autocrats preserved in power (Saudi Arabia, Zaire, Nicaragua, etc, etc, etc). International law is regularly flaunted by US actions (Iraq) and the sovereign rights of other nations dismissed (Grenada, Venezuela, Panama, etc, etc). American unilateralism implicitly declares the United Nations irrelevant. The entire world will benefit and become a more secure place for Americans when the United States finally decides to became a team player.

8. In the early 1980's the US automakers were reeling from the onslaught of cheap, well-designed and well-made Japanese imports. They could have rallied and made a big investment in improved technology, but chose instead to collectively spend $5 billion on a public relations campaign to convince the American public that four-wheel drive trucks are cool. At the same time, the Big Three twisted the arms of a good many Congressmen to get SUV's and pickup trucks exempted from the calculation of Corporate Average Fuel Economy by designating them as farm equipment. The SUV was an unsophisticated machine that the US car companies could build competitively because the Japanese simply didn't make them. It is dying out now, done in by high fuel prices, and will go to its grave unlamented. For a quarter of a century Detroit has profited mightily, sniggering at having smoked the yokels yet again, while the environment suffered and America's dependence on Middle-East oil grew. Unfortunately for the car makers, they have no second act. At least one and possibly all will likely disappear, abiding only as a classic case study in poor strategic management. It is time to close that embarrassing loophole in the CAFE regulations and force the US automobile industry, or whatever remains of it, to get serious about building better cars.

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